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Fantasy Projections | |||
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RUSHING | RECEIVING | FANTASY | |||||||||
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SEASON | TEAM | ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | TGTS | YDS | TD | FPTS/G | FPTS |
2022 | SF | 244 | 1,139 | 4.7 | 8 | 85 | 108 | 741 | 5 | 21.0 | 356.4 |
2023 | SF | 272 | 1,459 | 5.4 | 14 | 67 | 83 | 564 | 7 | 24.5 | 391.3 |
2024 | SF | 252 | 1,209 | 4.8 | 11 | 66 | 81 | 540 | 5 | 19.6 | 332.7 |
Christian McCaffrey 2024 Outlook: The Clear RB1 Until Proven Otherwise
San Francisco 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey will soon turn 28 years old this summer, often when we start to see a performance decline from running backs in fantasy football. However, CMC is such a dynamic receiver out of the backfield who is second among all running backs with 152 receptions over the last two years (only Austin Ekeler had more), offering a rare combination as a high-floor, high-ceiling player in fantasy. CMC averaged a career-best 5.4 yards per carry on the ground last season and was a key cog in the 49ers' Super Bowl run. McCaffrey rushed for 1,459 yards and 14 TDs in 2023 while adding 7 more through the air and went over 2,000 total yards. McCaffrey had 48 runs of 10+ yards or more in 2023 (according to PFF), which was the most in the NFL, and showed zero signs of slowing down. Given his full workload in a high-powered offense led by offensive wizard Kyle Shanahan, it's hard to feel bearish about CMC's 2024 outlook when there are so few running backs we can guarantee will see a bell-cow type of workload this upcoming season.
WEEK | OPP | FPTS | PERFORMANCE |
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1 | @PIT | 25.9 |
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2 | @LAR | 22.5 |
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3 | NYG | 22.9 |
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4 | ARI | 48.7 |
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5 | DAL | 13.8 |
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6 | @CLE | 14.2 |
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7 | @MIN | 22.6 |
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8 | CIN | 29.8 |
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9 |
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10 | @JAX | 20.2 |
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11 | TB | 21.3 |
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12 | @SEA | 30.9 |
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13 | @PHI | 22.3 |
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14 | SEA | 16.3 |
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15 | @ARI | 41.7 |
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16 | BAL | 25.1 |
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17 | @WAS | 13.1 |
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18 |
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RUSHING | RECEIVING | FANTASY | |||||||||
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SEASON | TEAM | ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | TGTS | YDS | TD | FPTS/G | FPTS |
2022 | NYJ | 80 | 463 | 5.8 | 4 | 19 | 31 | 218 | 1 | 16.4 | 115.1 |
2023 | NYJ | 223 | 994 | 4.5 | 5 | 76 | 95 | 591 | 4 | 17.1 | 290.5 |
2024 | NYJ | 253 | 1,127 | 4.5 | 8 | 61 | 72 | 486 | 3 | 17.0 | 288.9 |
Michael Carter 2023 NFL Player Outlook: Mainly Deep-League Option As Jets RB3
New York Jets running back Michael Carter will have his work cut out for him in 2023 as the backup to Breece Hall. The Jets are "hopeful" that Hall will be ready in Week 1 and is fully recovered from his torn ACL that he suffered last season. Carter will take a back seat to the second-year running back and former Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook, who signed a one-year deal with the Jets this offseason. When Hall took over as the lead back from Week 3 to Week 7, Carter averaged just 29 rush yards on 46% of the Jets snaps. That correlated to just 8.38 fantasy points per game during that span. Even when Hall went down, Carter wasn't as productive as fantasy managers would have liked due to the emergence of running back Zonovan Knight. The Jets also added running back Israel Abanikanda in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. With Hall as the lead back and Cook now in town, Carter is suddenly buried on the running back depth chart. There will be few opportunities for the 24-year-old back to shine, even as a flex play. Carter has been related to the Jets RB3 behind Hall and Cook, making him mainly an option in deep-league formats.
WEEK | OPP | FPTS | PERFORMANCE |
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1 | BUF | 15.7 |
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2 | @DAL | 0.9 |
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3 | NE | 3.7 |
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4 | KC | 9.9 |
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5 | @DEN | 28.4 |
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6 | PHI | 20.3 |
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7 |
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8 | @NYG | 21.3 |
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9 | LAC | 10.0 |
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10 | @LV | 10.5 |
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11 | @BUF | 18.3 |
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12 | MIA | 11.9 |
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13 | ATL | 10.5 |
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14 | HOU | 26.6 |
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15 | @MIA | 2.8 |
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16 | WAS | 43.1 |
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17 | @CLE | 27.6 |
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18 | @NE | 29.0 |
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RUSHING | RECEIVING | FANTASY | |||||||||
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SEASON | TEAM | ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | TGTS | YDS | TD | FPTS/G | FPTS |
2023 | ATL | 214 | 976 | 4.6 | 4 | 58 | 86 | 487 | 4 | 14.5 | 246.3 |
2024 | ATL | 241 | 1,106 | 4.6 | 8 | 56 | 71 | 462 | 4 | 16.2 | 275.2 |
Bijan Robinson 2024 Outlook: Set to Break Out in Sophomore Campaign
Bijan Robinson had an up-and-down rookie season after being selected by the Atlanta Falcons with the 8th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Despite finishing as the RB17 on a per-game basis as a rookie, Robinson's efficiency metrics should have fantasy managers chomping at the bit to roster him in 2024. Per PlayerProfiler, he was 9th among running backs in yards per touch and 5th in yards created. What's even more promising for his fantasy value is the advanced receiving metrics. Robinson was top-3 in routes run, route participation, and target share. Of running backs that played 16+ games in 2023, only Breece Hall and Christian McCaffrey had more targets than Robinson. Hall and McCaffrey finished as RB2 and RB1 on the season, respectively. With Kirk Cousins now the signal caller in Atlanta, expect the offense to take a giant step forward in 2024. That should mean many more touchdowns for Robinson, who scored just eight on 300 total opportunities as a rookie. Don't hesitate to use a top-5 draft pick on him this season.
WEEK | OPP | FPTS | PERFORMANCE |
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1 | CAR | 20.3 |
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2 | CIN | 3.6 |
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3 | @DET | 10.0 |
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4 | @JAX | 18.7 |
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5 | HOU | 11.8 |
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6 | WAS | 13.0 |
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7 | @TB | 0.3 |
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8 | @TEN | 12.2 |
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9 | MIN | 5.9 |
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10 | @ARI | 17.6 |
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11 |
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12 | NO | 27.3 |
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13 | @NYJ | 10.9 |
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14 | TB | 19.8 |
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15 | @CAR | 0.4 |
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16 | IND | 19.2 |
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17 | @CHI | 11.6 |
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18 | @NO | 26.1 |
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RUSHING | RECEIVING | FANTASY | |||||||||
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SEASON | TEAM | ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | TGTS | YDS | TD | FPTS/G | FPTS |
2022 | IND | 192 | 861 | 4.5 | 4 | 28 | 40 | 143 | 0 | 13.3 | 146.4 |
2023 | IND | 169 | 741 | 4.4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | 153 | 1 | 15.6 | 156.4 |
2024 | IND | 267 | 1,217 | 4.6 | 10 | 34 | 43 | 266 | 1 | 14.6 | 247.5 |
Jonathan Taylor 2023 NFL Player Outlook: Injured Star Out Four Games, Continues To Fall Amid Trade Request
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor's (ankle) 2023 fantasy draft cost has bounced around quite a bit this summer after a disappointing 2022. The 24-year-old is far from the consensus No. 1 overall pick he was last year, and his early-round treatment continues to be threatened as his status becomes murkier. Taylor's offseason took a dramatic twist when the runner was first placed on the PUP list on July 25, perhaps still working his way back from January right ankle surgery. The star ball carrier then requested a trade on July 29 amid contractual disputes, rendering his 23 outlook a suddenly-cloudy one. Finally, the Colts announced on Aug. 29 that Taylor would start the season on the PUP list after they couldn't find a trade suitor, meaning he will miss the first four games of the year. Taylor is already on the heels of an uneven year in an uninspiring Colts offense with multiple ankle sprains further hampering the runner, costing him six games. The former All-Pro was only fantasy's RB17 in average full-PPR fantasy points per game (13.3) last season. Taylor logged just 4.6 yards per touch and 0.68 fantasy points per opportunity. It wasn't long ago, though, when the 2021 Bert Bell Award winner led the league in rushing yards per game (106.5), yards from scrimmage (2171), and all-purpose touchdowns (20) that campaign. Following the trade of satellite-back Nyheim Hines, Taylor handled 87% of Indianapolis' offensive snaps in four full contests from Weeks 10 to 13 in '22. When Taylor is healthy, he certainly represents a high-end RB1 regardless of format. However, the former Pro Bowler signifies arguably fantasy's most dangerous proposition with a very wide range of potential outcomes. Taylor remains as good a bet as any ball carrier to lead the league in rushing yards per game in '23, but there's simply no guarantee he will return promptly after Week 4. He should be drafted as a fifth- or sixth-round pick with such a lack of clarity at this point.
WEEK | OPP | FPTS | PERFORMANCE |
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1 |
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2 |
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3 |
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4 |
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5 | TEN | 4.4 |
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6 | @JAX | 11.5 |
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7 | CLE | 21.0 |
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8 | NO | 10.7 |
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9 | @CAR | 17.9 |
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10 | @NE | 14.5 |
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11 |
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12 | TB | 21.1 |
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13 |
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14 |
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15 |
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16 | @ATL | 10.3 |
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17 | LV | 17.4 |
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18 | HOU | 27.6 |
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RUSHING | RECEIVING | FANTASY | |||||||||
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SEASON | TEAM | ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | TGTS | YDS | TD | FPTS/G | FPTS |
2023 | DET | 182 | 945 | 5.2 | 10 | 52 | 71 | 316 | 1 | 16.1 | 242.1 |
2024 | DET | 196 | 941 | 4.8 | 8 | 55 | 71 | 397 | 2 | 14.5 | 246.1 |
Jahmyr Gibbs 2024 Outlook: Primed To Build Upon His Exceptional Rookie Season
Jahmyr Gibbs enters his second season having already demonstrated his ability to flourish in Detroit's surging offense - even though he functioned in an ongoing rotation with David Montgomery. Gibbs emerged as an explosive weapon that was capable of erupting for sizable yardage as both a rusher and receiver in 2023. Gibbs finished third in rushing yards during his final 11 games (766/69.6 per game), while assembling a league-high nine rushes of 20+ yards and vaulting to second in rushing touchdowns (10). He was also second in yards after contact per attempt (2.5) from Weeks 1-18 while finishing second among all backs with 50+ attempts in explosive run percentage (runs of 15+ yards) according to Fantasy Points Data (8.2%). Gibbs also ran 317 routes, was targeted on 22.4% of those routes, finished eighth in targets (71/4.7 per game), and rose to ninth in receptions (52/3.5 per game). Gibbs also operated as an RB1 for fantasy managers while vaulting to eighth overall in points per game (16.1), and soaring to fourth (18.5) from Weeks 7-18. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will keep Gibbs highly involved in Detroit's distribution of touches. He will also operate behind an offensive line that returns four starters after finishing second in PFF's rankings during 2023. These favorable factors make Gibbs a back to prioritize late in Round 1 of dynasty startup and best-ball drafts.
WEEK | OPP | FPTS | PERFORMANCE |
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1 | NYG | 4.7 |
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2 | SEA | 12.6 |
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3 | ATL | 9.2 |
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4 | @GB | 9.1 |
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5 |
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6 |
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7 | @BAL | 27.6 |
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8 | LV | 29.9 |
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9 |
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10 | @LAC | 26.2 |
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11 | CHI | 21.5 |
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12 | GB | 11.3 |
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13 | @NO | 6.4 |
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14 | @CHI | 17.2 |
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15 | DEN | 24.8 |
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16 | @MIN | 24.0 |
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17 | @DAL | 5.3 |
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18 | MIN | 9.0 |
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